Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 2.285096 2.420168 2.566936 2.739830 2.940084 3.167565 3.449867
2025-05-11 2.134543 2.305855 2.500657 2.742751 3.042047 3.409839 3.914116
2025-05-18 1.997649 2.183712 2.401261 2.681049 3.042523 3.512662 4.209991
2025-05-25 1.914711 2.114200 2.353104 2.669863 3.096149 3.682230 4.626906
2025-06-01 1.844273 2.052643 2.307007 2.652812 3.134648 3.830862 5.047167
2025-06-08 1.782456 1.996637 2.262225 2.630939 3.160355 3.960446 5.472273
2025-06-15 1.747899 1.971818 2.254360 2.656057 3.253466 4.207448 6.209426
2025-06-22 1.675268 1.894574 2.173004 2.572250 3.173725 4.154545 6.302823
2025-06-29 1.638423 1.861491 2.147980 2.565491 3.210352 4.306652 6.935369
2025-07-06 1.587254 1.807555 2.092145 2.510344 3.164707 4.302322 7.175632
2025-07-13 1.573016 1.801133 2.099898 2.547716 3.270980 4.601601 8.483632
2025-07-20 1.569750 1.808719 2.126742 2.614775 3.434234 5.057245 10.978150
2025-07-27 1.542905 1.784758 2.109864 2.616337 3.488832 5.308265 13.339672
2025-08-03 1.518210 1.762625 2.094290 2.618451 3.544291 5.579607 17.012416
2025-08-10 1.477782 1.717644 2.044094 2.562354 3.485141 5.549507 18.294316
2025-08-17 1.453295 1.693735 2.023270 2.552118 3.512189 5.755381 24.145320
2025-08-24 1.428807 1.669004 2.000171 2.536608 3.527108 5.934662 34.170910
2025-08-31 1.404506 1.643784 1.975355 2.516731 3.531154 6.085869 55.704982
2025-09-07 1.393381 1.636450 1.976372 2.539529 3.624152 6.552497 NaN
2025-09-14 1.356193 1.591670 1.920371 2.463343 3.503274 6.270513 NaN
2025-09-21 1.339283 1.575035 1.905898 2.457187 3.530662 6.514457 NaN
2025-09-28 1.311447 1.542400 1.866586 2.406899 3.459570 6.389798 NaN
2025-10-05 1.306816 1.542389 1.876169 2.440990 3.574619 7.004084 NaN